An interactive study of forecasting
We are terrible at predicting the future.
The pattern in how we're wrong is the interesting part.
For a century we've forecast flying cars, market plateaus, mass starvation and the end of history. Some calls were eerily right; most missed — but they missed in systematic, learnable ways. Scroll to explore how prediction has evolved, which futures are knowable, and where humanity keeps fooling itself.
↓ Start exploringThe Evolving Crystal Ball
How we forecast has changed more than what we forecast. We went from reading entrails to scoring probabilities — and technology keeps sharpening the tools. Walk the eras:
Are We Too Hopeful — or Too Doomed?
Both, depending on the subject. We cheer on technology and markets (optimism bias) and catastrophize about people and the planet (doom bias). Here's the average lean of the predictions in this collection, by sector:
Each bar is the average tone of that sector's predictions, from deeply pessimistic (left) to euphorically optimistic (right). Hover a bar for the reading.
The Predictability Spectrum
Not all futures are equally knowable. Some live in Mediocristan — regular, forecastable. Others live in Taleb's Extremistan, ruled by rare “black swan” shocks no model sees coming. Hover any domain:
Hover a domain above to see why it sits where it does.
The Hall of Fame & Shame
The most famous predictions ever made — the spectacular misses and the improbable hits. Filter by sector, outcome, or the reason each one missed.
Think You'd Have Called It?
Easy to judge in hindsight. Before each reveal, commit to a guess — then see reality. Your calibration score is the whole point: good forecasters aren't always right, they're honest about their uncertainty.
The Forecast Horizon
So what do we predict now? Today's best forecasts for 2050 and 2100 — each shown with its confidence, because a forecast without one is just a wish. Remember Amara's Law: we overrate the short run and underrate the long.
Sources & Further Reading
Every claim above links to a reference. The full list, plus the
research that frames it, lives here and in RESEARCH.md.